“Two Nations” in the Future

The Name of the Blog

If I am the first to coin “panicdemic” as the term for the world’s current distress, creativity is dead beyond resurrection. If I am not the first, I apologize for my unconscious theft.

Plagues and pandemics have been subjects of literature since ancient times. A multitude of writers have speculated about how they might devastate society in the future. Yet, so far as I am aware, no speculator, however bold, foresaw any chain of events like what has occurred during the past ten months. Did anyone predict –

  • that the recipient of the fearsome name “pandemic” would be a disease that apparently kills around two percent of its victims?
  • that the all but universal reaction all over the world would be the shuttering of most businesses, schools, churches, parks and other places where people might gather in more than minuscule numbers?
  • that these measures would continue month after month while production fell, store shelves emptied and unemployment soared?
  • that this cessation of normal life would be popular and government officials who failed to implement it stringently would be stigmatized?
  • that the facts about the spread of the disease and its severity would be enshrouded in a fog of contradictory statistics, until anyone with any point of view could cite reams of authoritatively stated facts to support it?
  • and, finally, that the facts that individuals chose to believe would be 90 percent predictable from their political affiliation?

Whatever set of facts you believe now, how would you have reacted if, in November of last year, some science fiction writer had published a novel with all of the preceding among its premises and plot lines? He would have had to self-publish. No reputable house would have accepted such obviously incredible claptrap.

In retrospect, we can explain it all, whether we like the Great Shutdown or not. Over the last half century, the world has grown much safer than at any previous time in history, and nearly all nations have enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Less nearly all, but most, have simultaneously been spared major wars or domestic disturbances. The natural reaction to the shock of a new, virulent disease was “safety first”. That was certainly the preference of the people who have the most impact on public opinion: politicians, journalists, scientists, top business executives and they like. For them isolation is a minor burden, thanks to computers, cell phones and the Internet. Those same channels deluged the public with information in quantities too vast for mortals to understand and evaluate, at a time when social trust was at a low ebb. In need of a winnowing principle, many accepted the views of the public figures whom they liked, and those figures often times formed their own views in reflexive reaction to those of their friends or enemies.

It was all so obvious. How could anyone have expected anything else?

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)