With surprisingly little attention from the United States, except for the Wall Street Journal’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady (“Time Grows Short for Venezuela”, “Beware of Fidel’s Mini-Me”), Venezuela today decides where it stands in the War on Terror. Hugo Chavez, the would-be dictator who gained power in a democratic election, was booted out for a day in what looks very much like a pseudo-coup designed to shake out ill-wishers in the armed forces, and is now taking advantage of high oil prices to spread money lavishly among his backers, faces a recall referendum. He would have little chance of surviving an honest election, and even his available resources of intimidation and fraud may be inadequate.
Uncertainty about Venezuela’s future has been a big factor in the recent increase in the cost of oil. Whether the outcome of the referendum will end that uncertainty is itself uncertain. The next stage could be anything from a rout of the dictatorship to its glum acceptance by a demoralized opposition to civil war. We will begin to glimpse the future when the electoral authorities either do or do not release preliminary results as scheduled at 8:00 p.m. EDT. If they keep quiet, that will be a strong indication that Chavez has lost but does not intend to concede defeat, which will not be good news for the Western world.
Update (8/15/04, 8:25 p.m. CDT): After extending the poll closing time from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m., allegedly to accommodate heavy turnout, election officials have announced another extension, until midnight. As a Chicagoan, I have no difficulty smelling what is taking place. We can anticipate the announcement of a Chavez “victory” in the wee hours of the morning, with armed thugs loyal to the regime patrolling the streets at dawn to ensure that nobody objects very strenuously.
Update (8/15/04, 11:52 p.m. CDT): The Independent, distinctly not a right wing source, says that the vote was running nearly 70 percent against Chavez in mid-morning exit polls. Exit polling is illegal, and, if those numbers are at all accurate, it is obvious why “El Commandante” would prefer that they not be floating around.
Update (8/16/04, 10:00 a.m. CDT): All as predicted. Chavez “victory” announced. Blather from dictator-enabler Jimmy Carter. The conversion to a Castro-style state will commence shortly.
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