The conjunction of Ditto 17 and the new tax bill (which includes drastic reform of the rules governing deferred compensation and therefore falls within my area of professional interest) has cut my time for politics and blogging to near zero. As usually happens when political developments are only glimpsed in my peripheral vision (
This morning brings, admittedly from the other side of the world, an encouraging sign that the Big Left Journalists may not be able to fool enough of the people enough of the time. In Australia, where the press is an order of magnitude more biased, parochial and leftist than in this country, and where public support for the Iraqi campaign has always been tepid at best, the “BUSH LIED! HOWARD LIED!!” theme blared throughout the final few days before the federal elections, seemingly giving the Labour Party unstoppable momentum. (And don’t forget that John Kerry’s sister, who heads his campaign’s expatriate effort, endorsed the anti-war Labourites during a recent trip downunder.) Yet this morning brings the news that the government has not just won reelection but probably increased its Parliamentary majority. As I write, the Australian Electoral Commission reports that, with three-quarters of the vote counted, the Liberal/National coalition has taken 76 of the 126 decided seats. Twenty-four remain too close to call. The coalition needs to win only five of them to equal its current total in Parliament.
Quite a spectacular result: Better than the polls forecast and directly contrary to what appeared to be the trend. In Australia, one should note, polling is easier and generally more accurate than the U.S. Voting is compulsory, so pollsters don’t have to sift likely voters from the total adult population. Nonetheless, no one, save a handful of optimistic bloggers, foresaw the swing to the Right. If this is a straw in the wind for America, John Kerry will look like George McGovern on November 3rd.
On its own terms, the Australian result is a defeat for the terrorists, who tried to influence it by bombing the Australian embassy in Jakarta. Diana Kerry added her opinion that the country endangered itself by allying with the U.S. But Aussies are made of sterner stuff than Spaniards and weren’t intimidated.
Addendum: For those who would like to try their own hands at keeping Australia on the side of freedom and civilization, Prime Minister Forever is an inexpensive, first rate computer game recreating the election, down to the individual candidates in each district. It costs only $14.99 in Australian dollars and includes the recent (less fortunate) Canadian election as a bonus.
Update (10/10/04, 10:50 p.m. CDT): With four divisions still too close to call, the government has 84 seats. Three of the undecideds are currently held by Labour. It also appears that the Liberal-National coalition has accomplished the very difficult feat of winning control of the Senate, which is selected by proportional representation and has therefore tends to be splintered by minor parties. (The last time that the Lib-Nats had a majority was in 1976.) While the Senate has less power than the lower house of Parliament, it can block some government measures. Winning it will make it possible to John Howard to be much more of a reformer in this fourth term than during his first three. Inter alia there is a possibility of abolishing the anti-democratic practice of compulsory voting.
Further Reading: Arthur Chrenkoff assesses the extent to which the Australian election was “about” the War in Terror and the significance of the Senate outcome.
Update (10/29/04): Finishing the vote count takes a long time in Oz. It was not until this morning that the Electoral Commission called three of the last four doubtful seats in the House of Represenatives. The Liberal-National Coalition now has 86, an gain of five over the last Parliament. The Senate tally, completed yesterday, gives it 39 of 76 seats.
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