That Osama bin Laden is alive surprises me. For almost three years, he avoided showing himself to the world, even on videotape. The most reasonable inference was that he didn’t appear because he couldn’t, but reality doesn’t have to be reasonable. Instead, it now looks like he waited patiently for the right moment to emerge from hiding. The fact that he did so four days before the Election in order to spout a litany of Fahrenheit 9/11-inspired attacks on George W. Bush tells us all that we need to know about his motivation.
Sophisticates have been insisting that al-Qa’eda is delighted at the prospect of four more years of the Bush Administration, because the supposedly mismanaged War on Terror has boosted its recruitment. If so, no one has told al-Qa’eda’s nominal chief. What was significant about his tirade was that he was trying, however ineptly, to make arguments that might influence American voters, not simply ranting against evil Crusaders. I doubt that he expects a President Kerry to collapse instantly, but it’s clear which candidate is the “lesser evil” from his point of view.
The trajectory of events if Senator Kerry should win is also becoming clear. Whatever the Senator’s subjective desire to kill terrorists, his victory would be a great morale booster for their cause around the world. In Iraq, in particular, the other side will assume that it just needs to hold out for a few more months in order to win. In light of that possibility, Iraqis will be more fearful of aiding the interim government. The coming assault on Fallujah will be bloodier, and an Iraqi-American victory there will be less demoralizing to the foe.
It is hard to see how a President whose core supporters are fervently anti-war will be able to continue a conflict against a reinvigorated enemy for very long. He would doubtless try to exit gracefully, but any American retreat will be hailed throughout the House of Islam as a glorious triumph over the infidel. The famous “Arab street” has been quiescent in the face of American power. Can we count on it to remain so when it perceives American weakness? The image of Caliph Osama riding into Riyadh might not be utter fantasy.
John Kerry does not deserve to be the bearer of the hopes of our nation’s enemies, but he shouldn’t be surprised that the role has been thrust upon him. He could have lined up with the President on the war and made it clear to Osama and Zarqawi and the rest that a Kerry Administration would give them no respite. He refused to do that. As a result, if he wins the Presidency, he will take office under highly adverse conditions of his own making. If he has a plan to cope with them, it had better be a work of genius.
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