Next to the President’s reelection, nothing was sweeter yesterday than the Republican gains in the Senate, which came in at the upper bound of everyone’s predictions and put the GOP in a position to break judicial filibusters with the aid of just a handful of Democrats. Our side prevailed in some hard-fought battles: Richard Burr’s final sprint in North Carolina, Mel Martinez’s edging out a better known opponent in Florida, Lisa Murkowski’s defeat of Alaska’s most popular Democrat in the face of a quasi-scandal over the circumstances surrounding her appointment, Jim DeMint’s bold advocacy of free trade in the country’s most protectionist Republican-leaning state. At the same time, the Senate was where we muffed the easiest chances. Three states in particular leave one full of regret for vanished opportunities.
Illinois: If there were a political equivalent of Chapter XI, the Illinois Republican Party would have entered it long ago. The leadership’s Senatorial folly, when it forced Jack Ryan out of the race without having any idea of who should replace him (and effectively wound up with no one), was a final act of bankruptcy. Mr. Ryan’s sex scandal without the sex was a momentary embarrassment, but it didn’t have the makings of a vote-moving revelation, particularly not when his opponent was an untested young radical who owed his nomination, won over the firm opposition of the party hierarchy, to lucky breaks. As Peter Fitzgerald showed six years ago against Carol Moseley-Braun, a moderately conservative Republican has excellent prospects in Illinois against a far left Democrat. Maybe Ryan would have lost, but not by a super-landslide, and a victory would have put him in a position to ease out the Topinka-Edgar-Kjellander crowd whose blunders have steadily decimated what ought to be a powerful party.
Pennsylvania: President Bush may have lost Pennsylvania by campaigning for erratic liberal Arlen Specter in the GOP primary. Senator Specter did nothing to help the Bush-Cheney ticket and will do as little as possible, when he becomes chairman of the Judiciary Committee next year, to smooth the way for the President’s judicial nominees. (He openly declared as much in the course of seeking newspaper endorsements.) Although his primary opponent, Rep. Pat Toomey, wouldn’t have been a sure winner, his presence in the race would have maximized conservative turnout. There would have been no blowback from the Left; liberal turnout, including scores of thousands of ghosts in Philadelphia, was already maximized. A Toomey victory would have been a clear Republican gain. Defeat would have had the consolation of removing a Specter that is haunting the Republican caucus and can’t be considered worse than a marginal loss.
Georgia: Republicans were as sure to pick up the Georgia Senate seat as the Democrats, post-Ryan, were to win in Illinois. A rare chance was punted when they didn’t choose black conservative Herman Cain as the state’s next solon. Not only is Mr. Cain more conservative than the eventual winner, Rep. Johnny Isakson, but he would have been a marvelous counterpoint to Senator Obama: a successful black entrepreneur contrasted with a guy who has only worked for the government all his life. It would have been a fine demonstration of the benefits of conservatism for minority groups. Alas, that demonstration will have to await another year.
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