This has been the kind of week that pessimists love. The Cartoon Jihad rumbled on. Terrorists in Iraq came the nearest yet to igniting a genuine civil war. Disruption of oil exports from Saudi-controlled Arabia was narrowly averted. Liberals and the media, aided by knee-jerking right-wingers, ambushed the White House over approval of what should have been a routine business deal. According to at least one poll, the public now prefers to put Democrats in charge of national security. Bill Buckley declared that the American mission in Iraq has failed.
Though the tide can shift abruptly, right now it is running strongly toward a new American isolationism: washing our hands of Iraq, treating the entire Moslem world as an enemy, and hunkering down inside our own borders. After much tergiversation, that has effectively become the policy of the Democratic Party. Through a strange convergence, it also is suddenly attractive to what may be a large segment of the Right.
What would that strategy mean? The clearest lesson of the week’s events is that the fanatics in the Islamic world are full of confidence. The hope behind the isolationist impulse is that, if we leave them alone, they won’t bother us. That might make a shred of sense if they were war weary and desperate, longing to bring hostilities to an end. But when they have seen Western governments cowering at their protests, Western leaders pledging to stamp out criticism of Islam and Western commentators suggesting that the mightiest army in world history should resign itself to impotence, why should they be downhearted? Their hostility does not arise from recent events and will not be assuaged by our attempts at a unilateral cease fire.
Instead, American retreat will embolden them further. The rejection of the Dubai Ports World deal, a near certainty in light of the present state of public opinion (despite sensible arguments by the Wall Street Journal and others), will show that rulers who have cooperated with America cannot count on American support. Al-Qa’eda would be quite pleased to slink out of Iraq, where it has no hope of winning a standup war against the Shia majority, and take control of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, after which it will be in a position to topple the faltering Saudi oligarchy and continue into Egypt.
The strongest force holding Islamofascism in check in the Middle East today is fear of the United States and Israel, compared to which the enemy commands no significant power. The most that Zarqawi and his ilk can do is terrorize civilians and pray that Allah will move the infidels to run away without have been compelled. Should that happen, the calculus changes. With America gone and Israel deterred by a nuclear-armed Iran, zealots for a new Caliphate will be the strongest horse still in the race. Their regional triumph could be astonishingly swift, and their ambitions will certainly extend far beyond Riyadh and Cairo.
America will then face an indefinite future of terrorist threats. Though of low intensity, that will be the worst species of warfare, in which we will be on a perpetual defensive, trying to guard every vulnerable point in our 3.7 million square miles of territory, penetrable through over 5,000 miles of lightly patrolled border and scores of sea and airports. Inevitably, the defense will occasionally fail, and every failure will inspire further tightening. Ultimately, we will face a stark choice between safety and freedom – or, rather, between unfree safety and unfree insecurity, for there will be no possibility of returning to the casual libertarianism that we now enjoy.
My fond desire is for a restoration of the freedom of my youth, when one could board a plane without passing through metal detectors or cross the Canadian border with only a credit card for ID. Then we were safe and free. To be so again, we shall have to defeat the legions of terrorism and tyranny, not encourage them to believe that they can defeat us.