Cautious Optimism for France

Oui,, France is every civilized man’s second home, mais sometimes one would rather not go home again. The dishonesty and betrayals of Jacques “le Ver” Chirac have turned Francophilia into a left-wing monopoly and “cheese-eating surrender monkeys” in to a cliché.

Disappointment with M. Chirac was, it’s only fair to point out, predictable. The last French Rightist who had America’s best interests at heart was Louis XVI. From de Maistre through de Gaulle, the conventional view on le Droit has been that America is a progenitor of revolution. The French Left used to be pro-American for the same reason, though that impulse has vanished as it has fallen under the domination of hard and soft versions of Marxism.

Nonetheless, every French election in which the Right does well brings a surge of hope to right-wing hearts on this side of the Atlantic. Yesterday’s election results appear, based on a quick glance around the blogosphere, to be no exception. It was definitely a good day for the Right. The four Presidential candidates on that side of the spectrum (Sarkozy, Le Pen, de Villiers, Nihous) took, at the latest count I’ve seen, 45 percent of the vote, and François Bayrou, whose party has historically been right of center (though M. Bayrou himself is swathed in ambiguity and opportunism), had 18½ percent. That left a satisfying and astonishingly low 36½ percent for the seven contenders on la Gauche. Once upon a time, the French Communist Party could come close to that total all by itself. Now its splintered successor parties can’t in toto break out of single digits.

M. Sarkozy still must face Socialist airhead Ségolène Royal in a runoff on May 6th, and his victory isn’t an absolutely sure thing, at least not the way that M. Chirac was a sure winner over M. Le Pen six years ago. One would be foolish to bet against it, though, particularly in light of the fact that Mlle. Royal devoted much of the first round campaign to putting forward nostrums, such as a hike in the minimum wage to combat a 20 percent youth employment rate, that lured votes from the harder Left but may not impress less extreme voters as wholly rational. (To read the account in today’s Wall Street Journal [link probably for subscribers only], from the pen of one of the newsroom’s cookie cutter leftists, one would think that Mlle. Royal goes into the runoff in a commanding position, thanks to M. Sarkozy’s alleged “rightward shift”. There’s no mention of the polls, which put her 8 to 10 points behind, nor of her only leftward lurch. Amusing.)

By French standards, Nicolas Sarkozy is pro-Western Alliance, pro-economic freedom and anti-lawlessness. The objections to a hopeful view of his likely ascent are, unhappily, obvious: First, “French standards” in these matters are pretty low, as (the often over-excitable) Andrew Stuttaford points out. Second, enacting liberal (in the European sense), pro-Western policies in dying, leisure-loving France may be beyond any politician’s power. Stanley Kurtz offers plenty of cautionary notes:

The question is whether even a Sarkozy win will be enough to spark real reform. Sarkozy’s hopes for paring back France’s bloated welfare state likely outrun the expectations of even his own supporters. And disaffected immigrants in France’s suburbs are already claiming that “if Sarko wins, there’ll be riots.” So a Sarkozy victory is less likely to signal quick reform than it is to initiate a difficult and conflicted period of testing, which may or may not ultimately result in significant change. The huge turnout for the first round of voting portends a sharp left/right debate to come. Both sides understand that the fate of Europe’s social model could hang in the balance.

Given the likely electoral polarization, a Sarkozy victory followed by moves at reform may set up a confrontation with the left, which could pour onto the streets early in Sarkozy’s term in an effort to block serious change. Will Sarkozy hold back and avoid confrontation by pushing reform only gradually? Will he boldly take on his opponents? Or will even baby-steps toward change spark massive protests, as did mild attempts at labor market reform did only recently?

All in all, one’s optimism must be cautious at best. That is, however, better than things have been lately in la belle France.