In any competition – love, war, baseball, politics – it’s a fool’s strategy to count on your opponent’s ineptitude. It’s fun to watch Slick Barry and the Tin Lady maul each other and pleasant to fantasize that each will be successful in making the public aware of the other’s dishonesty, radicalism and callowness. Many Republicans have begun to take it for granted, I suspect, that the election will wind up as a formality, with Senator Obama losing by a Stevensonian, if not McGovern-like, margin. We can already relish the tide of Reagan Democrat defections in the blue states.
That’s a nice dream. On the other hand, the Democratic nomination brawl will end no later than August 27, 2008, come what may. “A week is a long time in politics”, and two months is quite adequate for the winner (presumably the Obamamessiah) to rally from any unpleasantness. He’ll have two months of celebrity media coverage, amplified by unlimited campaign funds. He’s raised a quarter of a billion dollars to date; if his direct campaign plus his Soros-funded allies don’t top a billion in expenditures, I’ll be surprised.
Moreover, whatever the real state of the economy next autumn, the majority of voters will perceive a recession – just as they did in 1992, when a brisk recovery was in fact under weigh from a very shallow downturn. Bill Clinton successfully labeled that “the worst economy since 1932”. This year’s Democratic candidate will follow suit and will meet with equal credulity. Slick Barry, at least, has already demonstrated that elementary honesty is beyond him when he talks about such matters.
To fight back, John McCain may have $84 million in federal funding, plus whatever pro-GOP groups can independently raise. I say “may”, because the Federal Election Commission currently lacks a quorum and cannot legally make disbursements. Perhaps the Senate Democrats will be sporting and move rapidly to confirm men to fill the vacancies. But perhaps not: Senator Obama has taken the lead in blocking action. It is not inconceivable that candidate McCain will arrive at Labor Day with no cash and no easy way to raise any.
The money gap is an epiphenomenon of the enthusiasm gap, which David Frum has summarized in a couple of statistics:
Number of views of Obama YouTube videos: 37 million
Number of views of McCain videos: 3 million
Obama funds raised from under $200 donations: $76 million(Yes, Mr. Frum is a famous pessimist, who wrote a book in early 1994 about how dismal the Republican Party’s prospects were for the foreseeable future, but his facts in this case are incontrovertible.)
McCain funds raised from under $200 donations: $7.4 million
Some of the enthusiasm for Senator Obama arises from the fact that he is a novelty, and until recently seemed like a fresh, hopeful break from politics as usual. Still, he’s hardly the first such to appear on the American political scene, and none has ever before so dominated the landscape.
Is it truly plausible that the huge YouTube popularity and fund raising prowess are nothing but an affirmative endorsement of Barack Obama? Ask yourself whether John F. Kennedy or Ronald Reagan could have done as well, and you’ll have your answer. A large part of the Obama frenzy is clearly driven by the most conspicuous characteristic of the Democratic Party’s Moveon/Kos Kidz/Code Pink base, namely, irrational hatred of their numerous “enemies”. To their ears, “hope and change” do not suggest a soaring, Reaganesque confidence in America’s ability to surmount any challenge. Rather, they represent the chance to bring the “Bushitler regime” and its backers, that is, people like Dick Cheney, me and you, to revolutionary justice.
The last time we had an election in which one side was primarily motivated by hatred of the other, a shooting war came next. It would be unduly pessimistic to predict the same fate this time, but it’s hard to foresee a genuinely happy outcome. If the Democrats win, the animus that spurs their cadre cannot but seep into an Obama Administration and fatally distort its policies. The most left-wing President in our history, coupled with a core of vengeful underlings, is not a recipe for peace, prosperity and good will.
Yet a McCain Presidency will face grim prospects, too. The heart of the leftist opposition will add bitterness and frustration to the fury it already feels. The riots of the late 1960’s seem distant and quaint today. Most Americans are too young to remember them clearly. I do, and do not look forward to history repeating itself.
Comments