After Massachusetts elected a new Senator whose main campaign plank was a promise to be the decisive vote against Obamacare, the scheme seemed destined to end with a whimper. The President would “pivot” to “jobs, jobs, jobs”, and a government takeover of health care would be put off until after some future election.
Now the whisper goes that the Obami want to end with a bang. Next Thursday comes a “health care summit” that, judging by present indicators, will be designed to showcase a new bill negotiated in secret by Congressional Democrats and the White House. After Republicans refuse to go along, the Dems will proceed to try to push the measure through via “reconciliation”.
If that is really the Democrats’ strategy, it shows all the acumen of the Charge of the Light Brigade. First, at a time when, as John Fund puts it, “Democratic incumbents are running scared and the fear factor is only intensifying”, the chances of again rallying a House majority behind highly unpopular legislation aren’t very promising.
Second, passing the bill and signing it into law won’t automatically make it popular. Turning public opinion around wouldn’t be impossible, but the bill’s proponents start about 12 runs behind in the ninth inning.
The reconciliation gambit, if played, would be a desperate move by a President who has no reason to be desperate. No matter how often the White House repeats “health care crisis”, there is only a health care problem, one that has arisen over a period of decades, will be only slightly worse tomorrow than it is today, and does not necessitate emergency measures. One might contrast Iraq in late 2006, when it appeared that the American public’s patience with the war was on the verge of collapse. President Bush had to either act boldly and rapidly or acquiesce in an American defeat. President Obama can leave health care for his second term without dire consequences.
Since the “bang” is so patently foolish, my guess is that we will see a “whimper”. That will leave unexplained why the President’s men have been talking up reconciliation. Do they have a cunning plan, possibly involving provoking a split with the Angry Left and a post-Obamacare flurry of triangulation? Or, yet more cunning, does the President hope to lose control of Congress and be free to campaign against Republican “obstructionists” for the two years leading up to his reelection bid? Or are the Obami just delusional? We shall see.
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