On this first anniversary of the signing of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (“ARRA”, pronounced “error”), the Administration is loudly proclaiming that, without this massive borrow-and-spend scheme, the economy would be much worse today, probably in the throes of a depression. The quantitative assertion is that 2,000,000 more Americans would be jobless, lifting the unemployment rate to about 11 percent.
No one knows, or can know, what happened in the parallel universe where the “stimulus” bill was hooted down. What we can and do know is that the Administration’s estimates of ARRA’s positive effects are based on its economists’ computer models. Those are, so far as I know, the same models that said the “stimulus” would keep unemployment under 8 percent of the labor force.
Exactly why should we believe them this time?
What we’ve learned in the past 12 months is that the Obami are about as good at economic forecasting as my local astrologer.
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