The Tory-LibDem coalition agreement is grounds for full-blown pessimism about both Britain’s future and the future of the new Prime Minister. David Cameron may be the youngest PM since Pitt fils; he is likely to be the least successful since Frederick, Lord North.
While the specifics of the deal include a number of wretched ideas, such as tripling the tax rate on capital gains, the fatal trap for Mr. Cameron and the Tories lies in the constitutional change that was a sine qua non for Liberal Democrat support:
The parties agree to the establishment of five year fixed-term parliaments. A Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government will put a binding motion before the House of Commons in the first days following this agreement stating that the next general election will be held on the first Thursday of May 2015. Following this motion, legislation will be brought forward to make provision for fixed term parliaments of five years. This legislation will also provide for dissolution if 55% or more of the House votes in favour.
We can see how this will play out: In September, the Labour Party will elect a new leader to replace the toxic Gordon Brown. The LibDems will then be in a position to form a “progressive coalition” with Labour. Labour and the LibDems hold 315 seats between them. A majority (assuming that Sinn Fein follows its tradition by refusing to take up the five seats that it won) will be 323. With adequate bribes to regional parties, a Lab-Lib coalition can oust the Conservatives. Under the prior constitution, Mr. Cameron could scotch that threat by dissolving Parliament and going to the country. He has now given up his right to do so. Hence, he will be faced with a choice between handing power over to the electoral losers or making further concessions to Nick Clegg.
To put it another way, the choice will be between going into the record books as being the shortest-serving Prime Minister whose term was not ended by his death or being PM while Britain goes the way of Greece. Doubtless, he will pick the second. The going the way of Greece is inevitable in either event.
But maybe he’ll succeed in banning chocolate oranges along the way.
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