After Wisconsin – where I was one of the returns watchers who sighed wearily when it looked like the votes we’d been expecting from Waukesha County weren’t really there – I no longer put blind faith in election night returns. Nonetheless, the current indication is that the Conservative Party of Canada has won a majority in Parliament after five years of governing as a minority. It was obvious in the lead up to election night that the elite media were excited by the surge of the New Democratic (
The Wall Street Journal’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady explained the other day why this election mattered:
In the past decade Canada has been gradually moving toward a more flexible, liberal economy as its citizens have sought to protect their living standards in an environment of global competition. Today is about whether this modernization continues. It is, in effect, a referendum on limited government.
And it looks like limited government won!
Update: The Conservative majority seems to be confirmed: CP 164, NDP 106, LP 35, BQ 2(!) (a collapse rivaling the fabled rout of the Progressive Conservatives, from 169 seats to two, in 1993), Greens 1. Very interesting are the numbers for the English-speaking provinces: CP 158, NDP 55, LP 29, Greens 1. Without Quebec, the Canadian Left is a remnant. The Conservatives won 45% of the vote in Ontario, 47% in British Columbia, and majorities in Alberta (67%), Saskatchewan (56% – where the New Democrats originated, but they didn’t win a single seat tonight) and Manitoba (54%). [N.B.: Results changed even as I typed. Now the CP is up to 166 seats. There’s a chance, of course, of going down a trifle before all the numbers firm up.]
Update (5/3/11): The final results, barring late changes in closely contested ridings: Conservatives 167, New Democrats 102, Liberals 34, Bloc Québécois 4, Greens 1. The English-speaking provinces went Conservatives 161, New Democrats 44, Liberals 27, Greens 1.
Addendum: This post attracted a comment that landed in the wrong place. The commenter, a left-of-center Canadian, points out, accurately, that 60 percent of the Canadian electorate didn’t vote for the Conservatives. True enough, and a good reason not to crow about an “emerging Tory majority”. I note, though, that it’s not easy to get a popular vote majority in a four-party system and that the Conservatives won very near half of the popular vote (along with over two-thirds of the ridings) in English-speaking Canada. If a two-party system emerges over the next four years, and if the opposition party is the loony left NDP, I’ll be surprised if the CP doesn’t pick up enough of the quarter of the electorate who voted for the Liberals and the rump BQ to continue in the majority.
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