The Long War Journal reports that the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front has beaten back “a multi-pronged attack” on its Panjshir Valley redoubt. The assault began on August 31st, immediately after the American withdrawal. It recaptured one of four districts that the Front had controlled but was able to make no further progress.
While the Taliban do have advantages in both manpower and firepower, Panjshir’s terrain provides the National Resistance Front with easily defendable positions, enabling the resistance to continue to withstand the Taliban onslaught. As a result, the National Resistance Front has thus far been successful in maintaining the territorial integrity of Panjshir and resisting incursions by the Taliban.
As fighting continues, the lack of declarations of victory by the Taliban and its supporters on social media would indicate that the resistance has the upper hand, at least temporarily.
Sources on the ground reported that the Taliban is preparing for another offensive as resistance forces say they remain ready to defend Panjshir.
As one would have expected, the Taliban forces include al-Qa’eda and foreign fighters, as verified by videos showing Arabic, Persian and other speakers of non-Afghan languages among the attacking troops.
Arabic speaking non-Afghans, supposedly Alqaida fighters among Taliban aiming towards Panjshir, today. The videographer in the video mentions that the group consists of speakers of Arabic, Uzbeki, Turkmeni, Persian, Pashto and Urdo languages. #AlqaidIsBackToPower pic.twitter.com/7IA9RxBnph
— Majeed Qarar (@MajeedQarar) August 31, 2021
One must, of course, avoid rash optimism. The huge store of military equipment that Joe Biden handed over to the Taliban, described by military historian Victor Davis Hanson as “the greatest loss of military equipment in the history of warfare by one power”, will certainly be put to bad use by the enemies of civilization. Some of it may be too sophisticated for Seventh Century warriors, and much was reportedly sabotaged by American soldiers as they departed, but there’s no doubt that experts speaking Chinese and Russian will soon turn up to repair damaged weapons and provide training in their use. And the Taliban will receive further reinforcements of enthusiastic jihadis from around the world.
Meanwhile the President and the media’s “Democratic operatives with bylines” will demand that we “move on” and will do all that they can to induce amnesia.
Update (September 6, 2021): Alas, the trickle of good news sputtered out quickly. The Long War Journal has the sequel this morning:
The Taliban completed its military conquest of Afghanistan and took control of the mountainous province of Panjshir after seven days of heavy fighting. The fall of Panjshir puts the Taliban in full control of the country and eliminates the final vestige of organized resistance to its rule.
LWJ’s diagnosis of the reasons why resistance collapsed:
Ahmad Massoud, whose father led the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the 1990s and was assassinated by Al Qaeda just two days prior to 9/11, vowed to continue the fight against the Taliban and called on all Afghans to continue its resistance. Without his base in Panjshir, Massoud’s promise to effectively continue the fight against the Taliban is a difficult proposition. Massoud’s forces may be able to launch guerrilla attacks from the mountains, but its ability to challenge Taliban rule will be limited.
From the beginning, the resistance’s odds of successfully holding out against the Taliban were always long [See FDD’s Long war Journal report, After fall of Kabul, resistance to Taliban emerges in Panjshir.]
The Taliban had nearly all of the advantages in its favor, including numbers, equipment, and the quality of its fighting force. The Taliban’s military has been forged in 20 years of war against the U.S. military, NATO, and Afghan forces, while Massoud’s forces were safe in Panjshir and Saleh’s remnants were demoralized during the final Taliban offensive. The Taliban was able to mobilize its forces from across Afghanistan, while the resistance’s numbers were limited. Additionally, the Taliban was flush with weapons, munitions and gear that it seized from the Afghan military.
The National Resistance Front’s only advantage was terrain, but it was no match for the Taliban’s will to take the province and end the final challenge to dominating the country and establishing the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
But Joe Biden’s ice cream supply is in no danger, so we can all forget about this “old news”, can’t we?
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