The situation on the ground in Ukraine is becoming a bore (albeit a noisy bore with extensive collateral damage). Here is what the Institute for the Study of War has to say in its March 14th update:
Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.
That doesn’t sound kinetic. One almost begins to think that the Daily Mail’s anonymous sources may not be cockeyed optimists:
Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another ‘ten to 14’ days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night.
By that time they may struggle to make any significant progress – while finding it difficult to hold ground, according to the latest intelligence.
Despite another day in which bombs rained down on Ukrainian cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv, resistance to the onslaught has seen the invasion fall behind schedule, allies of Vladimir Putin admitted for the first time on Monday. And American officials said the ground advance, now in its third week, had largely stalled.
A senior UK source said last night: ‘Ukraine has Russia on the run. It is running out of manpower and running out of energy. As long as we keep pressing they've got ten to 14 days before reaching their culminating point.
‘That's when the strength of Ukraine's resistance should become greater than Russia's attacking force.’
If it is true that Tsar Putin recently sacked eight Russian generals, he may not wholly disagree with the “senior UK source’s” assessment.
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