Today’s update from the Institute for the Study of War sounds almost encouraging for the Russians after the last dismal week, but that bar is so low that a cockroach would have trouble limboing under it:
Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounting casualties, and sustained Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces made limited advances around Chernihiv and toward Kyiv’s eastern outskirts after pausing for several days. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks and successful operations by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces continue to threaten Russia’s long line of communication in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces captured unspecified “eastern outskirts” of Mariupol on March 12 and continue to shell the city in a likely effort to force it to capitulate.
This is a good time to remember Han Solo’s wise advice: “Great, kid! Don't get cocky.” A note of triumphalism is creeping into Western commentary on the war, including rising speculation that Tsar Putin is in danger of assassination or a palace coup. Maybe he is. The effect on the Russian economy has apparently been catastrophic. If rumors can be believed, top leaders of the Russian secret service have been placed under house arrest, and the regime is laboring to suppress anti-war sentiment.
It’s no longer inconceivable that the invasion will fail. Where cockiness creeps in is the nascent belief that, if good comes to best, NATO’s adroitness and determination will deserve the credit. The current crop of Western leaders, as feckless a crew as every sat in the seats of power (their August 1914 counterparts look Bismarckian by comparison), will then pat each other’s backs and plod forward to future disasters.
As I said a few days ago, Russia against NATO is Lilliput against Brobdingnag. I was afraid then that Brobdingnag lacked the minimal will needed to flex its muscles. That degree of pessimism was unwarranted. The fact remains, though, that NATO’s economic and military superiority over Russia is immense. Before we preen over this victory (assuming that it comes to pass), we should recall the words of a Spartan statesman who, when his countrymen were clamoring to revolt against Alexander the Great and citing past victories over Persia as proof that the effort would succeed, responded, “Because you have slaughtered a thousand sheep, you believe that you can fight fifty wolves.”
Further Reading: Mary Dejevsky, “How Close is Russia to Collapse?”
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