The Institute for the Study of War’s daily Ukraine update indicates that little is happening on the ground but that a multi-pronged assault on the Ukrainian capital is not far off. Of course, it’s been “not far off” almost since the war began. On other fronts, the Russians continue to spread their forces. “He who attacks everywhere attacks nowhere.” They also face protests in many southern cities, which may be only a minor annoyance but certainly suggests that maintaining control over conquered territory will necessitate a continuing military commitment.
Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The Russians are bringing up supplies and reinforcements as well as conducting artillery, air, and missile attacks to weaken defenses and intimidate defenders in advance of such an assault. It is too soon to gauge the likely effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or to seize the city at this time. If Russian troops have been able to resupply, reorganize, and plan deliberate and coordinated simultaneous operations along the several axes of advance around and into the capital, they may be more successful in this operation than they have in previous undertakings. Operations near Kyiv in the past 72 hours have not offered enough evidence to evaluate that likelihood.
Russian troops in southern Ukraine continue to divide their efforts between attacks westward toward Mykolayiv and Odesa, attacks northward toward Zaporizhya, and attacks eastward toward Mariupol and Donbas. Failure to focus on any single line of advance has likely hindered Russian operations and will probably continue to do so. Russian troops in Kherson Oblast appear to be feeling their way around Mykolayiv, likely seeking to find a route across the Southern Bug River that would allow them to bypass Mykolayiv itself and resume their advance on Odesa. Those heading toward Zaporizhya currently lack the combat power likely necessary to encircle or take that large city. They could, however, set conditions for successful operations against Zaporizhya once reinforcements arrive following the fall of Mariupol and the opening of a wide land route westward from Donbas.
It’s no longer rash to speculate that the day may soon arrive when Russia will be desperate to make peace. Unfortunately, passion for vengeance may overwhelm responsible statesmanship. The world doesn’t need a Weimar Republic redux in Moscow.
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