Although political leaders and diplomats are fighting the Russo-Ukrainian War with ever increasing fury, and its consequences are spilling over into domestic politics as the Biden Administration insists that rising fuel costs are solely Tsar Putin’s fault and have nothing to do with the President’s stifling of American oil and natural gas production, the situation on the ground remains rather static. An assault on Kiev has been 24 to 96 hours off for the past week or so. Here is the Institute for the Study of War’s March 8th update:
Russian forces continued concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The reported appearance of forces belonging to Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrov, Russia’s Rosgvardia internal security formations, and the Liga (former Wagner) Private Military Company in the western outskirts of Kyiv may indicate that the Russian military is struggling to assemble sufficient conventional combat power to launch its assault on the capital. Russian forces near Kyiv made limited gains and prepared for limited drives to continue their attempted encirclement to the west.
Ukrainian forces have continued to challenge the lengthy Russian ground lines of communication leading from near Sumy to eastern Kyiv. Russian forces near Kharkiv have been steadily diverting to secure and extend those lines over the past few days, as we have reported. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 8 that Russian troops currently near Chernihiv appear to be moving east. We assess that those forces may seek to link up with troops coming from near Sumy to help them consolidate and protect their extended lines in support of the planned offensive against Kyiv.
The situation in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Ukraine remained largely unchanged in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian General Staff reporting of additional Russian efforts to advance on the city of Zaporizhya likely confirm that Russia intends to make blocking that city a priority. The forces Russia is so far moving toward Zaporizhya appear to be far too small to encircle or take it.
On a somewhat related note, wasn’t Joe Biden going to restore America’s place in the world after Bad Orange Man cut us off from the international community? Today the Wall Street Journal headlines, “Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis” (summary here if you can’t penetrate the WSJ paywall).
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