The leaks in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines have attracted the attention of Internet Nero Wolfes, and why shouldn’t I join the investigation? Let us review the facts, Archie.
- Two pipelines running underneath the Baltic Sea connecting Russia with Germany have sprung major leaks.
- The leaks were preceded by seismic events in their vicinity, one measuring 1.8 on the Richter Scale, the other 2.3. The director of the Swedish National Seismic Network says that there is “no doubt” that the events were explosions rather than earthquakes. By earthquake standards, the blasts were puny, but as explosions they were more than a pipeline would likely be able to withstand.
- The pipelines are not currently doing anything useful, because Russia has cut off deliveries via Nord Stream 1, and Nord Stream 2 has yet to start up.
- There are no estimates of how long repairs will take. It doesn’t sound like they will be completed swiftly.
- Within the past few days, a natural gas pipeline connecting Norway and Poland via Denmark has begun operations, and Germany has secured supplies of liquified natural gas from Abu Dhabi.
Applying the reader-tested mantra of “motive, method, opportunity”, what can we make of this?
The suspects that have so far been suggested are Russia, the United States, Poland and Ukraine. All four surely possess the means to sabotage the pipelines. It doesn’t appear to be an overly complex operation. The Baltic is shallow. Properly equipped divers could reach the lines and plant explosives without great difficulty.
Opportunity is questionable for Ukraine. It has no access to the Baltic and would be very foolish to take the risk of hiring third parties who might betray the plot.
Motive is murky. If we rule out insanity, the ancient question cui bono offers little insight.
- Nord Stream gives Russia its major leverage over a Western Europe that is nearing an energy-short winter. That leverage is now gone. Russia can’t wave offers to resume the natural gas flow as a lure to freezing Germans. I have seen the suggestion that Putin wanted to demonstrate that he has the ability to render pipelines inoperable, in order to discourage competitors like the Norway–Poland line, but (i) who ever doubted that?, and (ii) if that were the motive, wouldn’t Putin be advertising what he did rather than denying it?
- The United States may be pleased that Tsar Putin has lost an important card from his deck, but the card is diminishing in importance. More seriously, inflicting damage of this kind on his country would be monumentally short-sighted. Someday Putin will no longer be in power, and it will be in our interest to repair relations with Russia. If the U.S. had a hand in this operation, the odds are high that it will come to light, as have so many secrets that would be better kept in the cupboard. That will certainly do nothing to foster amity. In any event, it stands not within the prospect of belief that the timorous fools around Joe Biden would take any bold action.
- Poland has very little to gain from shutting down Nord Stream. Its own new line would have an operational Nord Stream as a competitor, but there is plenty of demand for natural gas to go around, and any hint of Polish involvement would destroy its already frayed relations with other EU members.
Where does that leave us? We are looking for a suspect that (i) has reasons to keep Nord Stream from operating, (ii) has the capability of sabotaging it and (iii) would not be deterred by the prospect that its role might become known. Let me hazard a guess at a culprit that fits that description.
Eco-extremists loathe natural gas. They would like to see it replaced by wind and sunshine and fairy dust. They aren’t scrupulous about how they achieve their ends. Knocking out two major pipelines is a step toward their energy-free utopia.
Some eco-extremist groups are very well-funded. The cost of a few ships, trained divers and explosives would be well within their means.
Most importantly, these groups have demonstrated that they are utterly unafraid of adverse public reactions to their exploits. Being quasi-religious fanatics, they are willing to be martyred for their cause.
Of course, this is all theorizing in my study, and I have no Archie to do the leg work. Nonetheless, it seems to me to be a theory worth thinking about.